Ari SQRD
A podcast about NFL football hosted by two guys named Ari
Ari SQRD
Chiefs, Chaos & Contract Drama | NFL Offseason Heat Check
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This episode of Ari SQRD brings the heat from the very first second.
We open with a blockbuster breakdown of the Chiefs–Rams trade and what it really means, not just on paper, but for the future of both franchises. Then it’s straight into the chaos of free agency, where things get interesting. The Ravens and the Maxx Crosby situation? Yeah… we unpack what happened and what it could signal for the organization moving forward.
From there, we run through our favorite moves around the league and dive into a conversation that always gets people talking: Kyler Murray vs Tua Tagovailoa.
We wrap things up with an early draft look, including why Jeremiah Love might be climbing boards faster than people expect.
Big trades, strong takes, and a fast-moving episode you won’t want to miss.
Welcome back to another edition of Ari Squared. We are your hosts, Ari Lev and Ari Birkowitz, coming to you live on St. Patrick's Day. I know we're both sober, Ari, but still, you know, it's the day of the Idish, and uh there are a lot of redhead people running around, short little Irishmen and women running around today, starting their drinking off nice and early in the morning. And so happy St. Paddy's Day to all. It's good to be back and recording. Um, and we're gonna sit here and fingers crossed, rub Buddha's belly, whatever different religion or superstition you believe in, then we will be able to get through this podcast without having a siren on either or both of our ends. So are you how you been, man?
SPEAKER_01So I just wanted to say, if if we did if we were interrupted, would we then call the podcast pardon the interruption? Oh nice. And and and the St. Patrick's day makes me want to start talking first about the McDuffie trade. I feel like that's part and parcel for St. Patrick's discussion, you know, and and and and there has there has been a lot of interesting notes with regard to McDuffie. So if we're we're we're going to jump right into it, I mean I mean, I I'm loving what the Rams have done. I I never understood how teams like the Rams, who seemingly are in it every year and uh you know pay a lot of their players, can literally afford to pay McDuffie, pay Jalen Watson, bring back Cameron Curl. Like it's just it's unbelievable to me. And all of a sudden, if when you're looking at it, like their biggest weakness going into you know, this past season, the offseason, they dismantled any kind of uh thought that anyone would have. It's gonna be very difficult to pass on the Rams this this coming year. And a good defense has gotten elite, you know, with with the pass rushing juice that they already have, and now on the back end. What are your thoughts on that move from the Rams perspective, the McDuffie trade and everything that ensued afterward? And then we can talk a little bit about the Chiefs side as well.
SPEAKER_00So I think uh, you know, I gotta tell you, is that you you watch the Rams yet again for the ninth time in 10 season where they basically look at their first round pick and say, Fuck you, I don't want you. No matter who you are, but that's just their sentiment towards it. And it's amazing. Think about it. Aside from taking Jared Verse, the Rams have literally traded away their past nine out of their past 10 picks. So I think to me, it's it's it's it's a it's kind of like a gunslinger mentality, but you can't really argue with the success of it because when all said and done, you know, the Rams certainly in the past, I would say three seasons, maybe even more, they are, or if you want to go back to their Super Bowl win even further back, they are contenders every year. And you know, the the the stronger just got even stronger, the strong got even stronger, and I think it's a great move. Um, it's very interesting. We will discuss the chiefs side of things uh as well, because there's a lot of different mindset that went into this as well. And I think when all said and done, great move on both ends. What's interesting to me is the fact that they not only got McDuffie, but they also went and got their other quarterback too. So it's very interesting to see that they looked at the chief secondary and said, We want not one, we want both of those guys. So I thought that was very interesting. Um, and then just to touch on the chief side of things for a moment, and then we'll kick it back to you for your thoughts on the chief side. I think it's a pretty brilliant move. I think that they have done a great job, and I think, and this comes back to Spaggs' greatness. Now, there's no question that he is arguably, you know, the best DC in the league. And if he's not the best, he's the top three. His ability to develop anybody, any position on uh on the defense is is is really second to none. And what that gives him the ability to do is it gives them the ability to keep reloading, so it's hey, instead of paying you, I'm gonna trade your way, I'm gonna pick up another first round pick, and off we go. And to me, what's even more interesting now is essentially you can go and draft the top corner at number nine, and and which again, especially after the walkers signing, all signs are pointing that they're gonna do that, they're gonna go defense, and you've picked up an extra first rounder, you get to still get the top pick of cornerbacks in the in the draft, not to mention another one. And to me, this was really a win-win all around. And you know, you don't always see that in trades. There's a lot of times where it's like you like look at one side of it and go, whoo, they got fleeced, and the other one was like, Okay, nice, nice pick. I really think both teams walked away a winner here. So that's kind of my quick thoughts on that. All right, let's go to the Chiefs side of things. What do you think?
SPEAKER_01So, yeah, I mean, the what the Chiefs have started doing over the past uh, I'd say four or five years is very similar to the Patriots uh method of the early 2000s when Belichick would kind of do the exact same thing that you're crediting SPACs for now, which is he at any position on the defense, they would just you know next man up mentality, and the guy that was about to reach free agency would get shipped off and they would, you know, insert some backup or you know, mid-round pick, and they would just do immediately replace that player. You know, it reminds me, you know, Richard Seymour when he was traded to the Raiders for a first-round pick, or when they let Mike Vrieble go and Ty Warren, you know, it's you could look at it was like Richard Seymour um replaced, I can't remember the defensive end from 2001 off the top of my head. Richard Seymour came in, replaced that guy. Then Ty Warren replaced Richard Seymour, Trey Flowers replaced Ty Warren. Like, this is how they had it, and and they kept on and they kept that thing going for years. Uh, even you know, talking about Mike Frabel and the Patriots. Mike Frabel, they let him go to the Chiefs, uh, sign as a free agent. They replaced him with Tully Bantacane, um, who came out of nowhere and had and had like a bunch of sacks, you know, like that's just what the Patriots would do. And the Chiefs, specifically in the secondary, are are doing the exact same thing now. I mean, they're they're cycling through, you know, every two to three years, they're cycling through a different group of uh secondary players. And they've had, you know, but whether it was back to the Ward and Snead secondary, and then you know, drafting McDuffie. And I think to your point, you know, this is a year where they're going to, they looked at the draft and picking at, I think, number nine, and there are a few options that they could go if they're gonna go receiver, if they're gonna go offensive line, and there are some interesting moves, but you know, at that spot, what really stands out to me is there are two top quarterbacks in this year's draft, and I think there's close to a zero percent chance, I wouldn't say zero, but close to a zero percent chance that both of the two top corners are off the board by the times that by the time the Chiefs pick, and getting that guy for five years who can immediately come in and replace Trent McDuffie, and then you get the pick later on in the first round, in which you can definitely attack a very deep wide receiver class or even go offensive line there, is a much better strategy for continuing to build and rebuild or re-uh revamp this football team in a way that Brett Veach and Andy Reid have done time and time again.
SPEAKER_00You could even, by the way, with their second pick in the first round, which is gonna be in the upper 20s, think about it, you could even go ahead and grab one of the top tight ends and essentially draft Travis Kelsey's replacement because Travis Kelsey, as much as he's officially back for season 14, I am extremely doubtful that he's coming back for season 15. I mean, you never you never know, but I would be extremely doubtful that he comes back next year, and there are some really good tight ends coming out of this year's draft, and so I think that that's another move that they could essentially take. A proposed need, um, to me, what really stood out was the fact is that after that trade to the tight ends and the contract extension, they just cut it. So that's also got to speak to the Chiefs' ability to kind of realize when when you know when the player is peaking and when their value is at its top, and that also is when they're trading them away, and then we see he really fell off the cliff, both performance-wise, injury-wise. And so it's very interesting to see what a savvy move that ended up being. And again, this will go down as another one. So I get, you know, like you said, there was the Patriots' way, and uh, this clearly seems to be the Chiefs' way, and you cannot argue with the success they're having with it.
SPEAKER_01No, you cannot. And I'll I'll just add uh one note on Sneed, which is that you know, for the for the most part, his issues have been, you know, with criminal uh behavior, and that's really the reason why he was cut. Um, everything, you know, the he was embroiled in a couple different uh and I don't even know if he's going to be in the NFL uh moving forward or or anything like that. So, you know, Sneed's case, uh yes, you know, the injuries and the talent have definitely felt fallen off, but I think for the most part it may be a you know personal issue kind of situation with Lajarius Sneed, which um I think we've also covered uh extensively, you know, on this on this podcast. But yeah, so so you know, speaking about that, you know, and and and and trades, successful or otherwise, I'd I'd like to get I'd like to you know get your feel on what you think happened with the Ravens and Max Crosby.
SPEAKER_00So this has got to be, you know, we spoke about this um, you know, as it happened live, and uh, and I'm glad we're getting a chance to discuss it on air for our listeners to hear. I do not remember a I'm not gonna say scandal because it's not quite a scandal, but close there too. Like this is just insane. I I don't remember a team ever doing something like this before, and I just don't buy this whole oh, it was only once we got him in the building and actually saw his medical records in person, and then we realized that the knee was a bigger problem. Bullshit, and not only is that whole thing bullshit, but the fact that like the the the plane that flew Crosby and his family back home back to Las Vegas had barely touched back in Vegas, and then they signed Trey Hendrickson. I mean, come on, like I gotta tell you, for for an organization that has really been held at the highest of levels, um, you know, they've always had a top-notch GM starting with Newsen and now on to DeCosta and to pull just a shitty ass move like this. Like, I don't understand it. I think that they've really like they have got to have burned themselves with teams trading with them in the future because you know the Ravens have now officially become the Josh McDaniels as a head coach candidate in Phil. Because it's like, oh yeah, I'm your head coach. Wait, no, just kidding, no, I'm not. And like, I think it's really messed up from the fact that you know, I'm the Raiders, and here I go saying, Okay, I have these two extra first round picks this year and next. I then go and sign and throw ridiculous amounts of money around, all to then 48 hours later, then go turn around and say, No, I don't. And it not only has ramifications on this year's um free agency and how you draft, it has just as much ramifications on next year because from what everybody is saying, this year's draft, yes, it's a deaf draft for sure, and there's lots of talent in the leader round. But if you look at what's supposed to be coming out in 2027 across all different positions, there's a reason why teams are loading up on picks and are happy, like, oh yeah, I'll take an extra sixth rounder next year. Like, load them up is because of that. And I know we're not gonna deeply discuss the Giants or Jets, but what the Jets are doing actually for next year's draft, to me, that is a very impressive move because of what the draft next year is gonna look like. But staying on point and staying focused, this was a shitty move, both of like on every level, and also I feel for Max Crosby. Max Crosby gets on a play. He was in Baltimore, I know, with his wife and family fly there, are walked around the facility. He's already fenced Raiders Nation. Every single you know, NFL conduit and reporter has already put up the graphics of his you know uniform in it. All the white trash people who live in Maryland who beat their wives and already bought his jersey, and it was all lined up, all lined up, and then what number was he gonna wear? So in theory, 98.
SPEAKER_01Okay, okay. In theory, so you know, you know, you know what messes with me, and and the people that are protecting the the Ravens. You know, I I I listened to uh Mel Kuyper Jr. um during the draft season. He's a huge Ravens fan, and he was saying, you know, the Ravens, they've done this before. Any team should know this about the Ravens. So I wanted to tell you, so I looked into this. This is the fourth time, you know, the Ravens franchise hasn't existed for so long. I think this they just celebrated their 30th year. Um, and in those 30 years, this is the fourth time that they've pulled this, okay? But the first two times were free agents, and the first time was in 1997. Since 2018, they've done it three times. They signed Ryan Grant, who I I'm not sure if you recall, but Ryan Grant was a pretty serious receiver for the Green Bay Packers during the twice, you know, during the high uh the peak Aaron Rodgers years, and they signed as a free agent, and then he failed the physical, they pulled the contract, and then in 2020, this Michael Brockers was moved to the Ravens uh in a trade. And um with the contract, and the same thing happened, and they they pulled out the the thing the the pro the problem with this isn't what the Ravens did, it was the timing of it. You come to an agreement Saturday, you know, on Saturday, and then basically you wait until Wednesday, two days into you know the tampering period, or almost as the new league year is starting, to then you know say, oh, he failed the physical. To me, the optics of it is like, okay, you know, we basically view Max Crosby as like a top seven pass rusher in the NFL, and we view Trey Hendrickson as a top 12 pass rusher in the NFL. If we could sign Trey Hendrickson, then we're going to pull out of the deal for Max Crosby. Until we know for sure that we can sign Trey Hendrickson, we're going to string the Raiders along. Like that's literally what it seemed like to me, and that's what pissed me off about this whole scenario. Oh, yeah, you know, and I just wanted to add one other interesting thing about it, is that um in the I've never I never remember I have never seen anything like this happen in the NFL. So I had to go to a different sport. Um, which recently there was this crazy sit scenario in the NHL where um the Ottawa Senators traded a player named Evgeny Dedanov to um the Vegas Golden Knights. Okay. And basically, when you're trading a player, you have to disclose all aspects of the contract that come up, and they never disclosed that he had a 10-team no trade list that could be updated every year. So they basically thought that the no trade list at the time was the no trade list, and then two, and then I think two years later, they trade him to the Anaheim uh Ducks, and Dadanov vetoes the trade, it gets sent to the NHL office, and they're like they fought that they had to cancel the trade, and then Ottawa ended up losing first-round draft picks because they never disclosed it. So it was crazy because the guy was getting traded again. That trade couldn't happen. The team that was trading him didn't even know that that couldn't happen, but it didn't happen. It was so messed up. So, like, that was you know, like the that that it's on that kind of thinking to myself, you know, how could the Ravens do this? And and and also how much cachet did John Harbaugh have? And are are the are the Ravens about to become like a second division team now? Like, is this is is this what's happening now? Like, are we about to see the first ever since they came into the league? They've been one of the best teams and best run franchises in the NFL, and it's been almost 30 years of of being run extremely well. Are we about to see the Ravens finally be a team that has a few, you know, five and twelve years and six and eleven years, and maybe have a top five draft pick? Because these are the kind of things that happen when franchises start to disintegrate. And again, if you look at it as a trend, you can really point to okay, they let John Harbaugh leave, and then this happens, and then you're looking at it, and also Tyler Linderbaum, they totally fumbled that situation. Not only did they not pick up his fifth-year player option, okay, but they also didn't franchise him because they thought that 23 or 24 million dollars, which is the average of the top five salaries for offensive linemen, is too much for a center. And then he gets 27 million dollars a year from the Raiders. And I'm sure they weren't the only team that was offering significantly more than what the Ravens could have just given him and had him at least for another two years for. So that whole situation was also messed up. So it really, it really starts, you know, you start to see a pattern, and you're saying, like, what's going on with the Ravens? What's happening there?
SPEAKER_00It's really incredible about how, and you know, again, and I'll say this as a Giants fan, but I think you know, even league wide or fandom wise, I think people would agree. You just take a look at the direction that the Ravens are trending in now. That, and again, this is not a knock on Jesse Minter, and he might end up being a great coach, and we both had him ranked high in terms of our coach candidate. But you look at where the Ravens are trending after just this opening to free agency, um, and then you look at where the Giants are trending now and the moves that the Giants have made, and you see just how overall Harbaugh has taken over pretty much complete control, and you've really got a question. And yeah, I agree with you. I I think we're going to see the Ravens. I'm not gonna say fall off a cliff, and also, by the way, another another thing we didn't even talk about with the Ravens, another very curious move that is worth looking at is the Lamar contract. Now, what they just did was the following they just converted, they didn't extend them, they converted some of this year's salary into a signing bonus, added two extra avoidable years onto his contract, but essentially now they have really screwed themselves because yes, they freed up some cash this year, great, but next year, Lamar with a no trade clause, no franchise tag clause, no transition tag clause, all in his contract, he is going to carry an $85 million cap hit next year, which means that when it comes time to discussing extension, he is going to hold all of the leverage, all of it. And even if he has another injury-riddled um season, which unfortunately is his pattern, they're gonna either have to extend him in numbers that they probably aren't gonna feel comfortable with, or they're gonna have to cut him with an $85 million cap hit. So they are really, they are really, really, really trending in the wrong direction. And I'm with you, Ari. I think we're gonna see the Ravens fall off a cliff and no longer be looked at or have the same respect that they have carried for decades now.
SPEAKER_01Well, I I I can even take it a step further and put the Ravens in a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario. Nice where basically. Basically, if Lamar has a down season because of injury or whatever, then they're saddled with exactly what you're saying. If they have a tremendous season, then their brand new offense coordinator, Declan Doyle, is going to be hired as a head coach. And he's going to be gone. So, you know, you're talking about getting a new OC for the third straight year. A different OC, sorry, rather, for the third straight year. Going in with Lamar, you know, you could either say, like, okay, so then Lamar has to pick his own offensive coordinator. And what does that mean for Jesse Minter? It's it's uh like like you said, it's it's a it's a curious, a curious situation. Um speaking on the issue of uh of quarterbacks and large contracts, there are a couple very seriously uh large albatross contracts that were recently you know moved off of from their teams. Um which which one of those fits Kyler to the Vikings or Tua to the Falcons? Do you like more and why?
SPEAKER_00Ooh, great question. Um, I definitely like the Kyler to the Vikings move better than I like the Tua to the Falcons move, and I'll and I'll and I'll tell you why. Although, and I will say this, the Kyler to the Vikings move really kind of uh essentially it means that they've given up on JJ McCarthy, even though they're gonna swear they didn't, but I'll tell you why, I'll expand on why that I think that is. But let's first talk about why I think it's a better buffet. Um, number one, if you think about it from Kyler's perspective, who better to learn under? Even if it ends up just being for a year, who better to learn under than KOC? Let's start with that. It doesn't get better than that. And certainly if we're comparing between having gone to the Falcons or gone to the um and gone to the Vikings, that's not even a debate that it was a much better move for him to have gone there. Let's start with that. Number two, in terms of competition, if he in terms of who's in competition now, JJ McCarthy, that doesn't scare me. And so now it's a it's a better move from that perspective, also because Kyler, aside from that one major injury, the guy isn't an injury risk. And quite frankly, I don't see how he doesn't win that job. Now, what I do think that the Vikings have now put themselves in a precarious spot is the following if you say it's a straight-out competition between Kyler and JJ McCarthy, Kyler wins that competition, without a doubt. Now, if it's not an open competition, and sorry, and if it is an open competition, another problem you have is who is getting the reps? So if Kyler is getting the one with the ones, or majority of the reps with the ones, the issue that you have is the fact of is that you have to wash your hands at that point on McCarthy because if he's not getting the reps with the ones, something that he desperately needs, which is more reps, because the guy hasn't played all that much because of injury. Then if he's not getting the reps with the ones, you're not giving him the opportunity to be successful. On the flip side, if you you also need to get Kyler Murray as much as he has starter experience, you need to get him up to speed as well. So he also needs reps with the ones. So I it's gonna be a very interesting um thing to see how KOC handles that, but again, in terms of is there somebody I trust to make the best out of that situation? It is certainly KF KOC. Now let's switch over to the Falcons for a moment. I don't get the move at all. I I don't get, I didn't get why they would give Kirk, meaning I understand why they gave Kirk Cousins the contract that they gave Kirk Cousins. I that I get why then they turned around and drafted Penix, Michael Panix, um, with the eighth with the eighth pick, that made no sense to me. Fast forward now, and again, let's think of every concern there was about Penix. He was older and injury play. What happens? Exactly that. The dude cannot stay healthy to save his life, and then you go, and yes, I understand it's on a minimum veteran contract because the dolphins are holding the bag literally and figuratively in this case. But why would you go and pick up an injury riddled, another lefty QB who is also toxic in the locker room?
SPEAKER_01Aren't they the only two lefty QBs right now in the NFL? I believe so. They're both now on the same roster, it's pretty wild. I it absolutely, and by the way, then the quarterbacks have like disappeared from the NFL, by the way. It doesn't exist anymore.
SPEAKER_00Of course. Well, because then also you have to flip the importance of your left and right tackles, right, to a degree as well. If you have lefty QB, look, I I do think that if you already have one left EQB, you might as well have another, just because if you think about it in terms of projections and everything like that, like I get the rationale to why they would do that, but I don't get the move at all. And and I just think that like the Falcons, I gotta tell you, and you also look at some of their free agency signings, which were like second rate at best. I I just don't get the direction of that franchise. I didn't get it before the new coaching staff and Matt Ryan and all that. It's really more of the same. But yes, to answer your question, then I'd love to hear um your thoughts on it. Yeah, there's no question, without a doubt, between those two QB moves, definitely the um, definitely the, although again with question marks, the Mari to Vikings, in my opinion, is a better move than Tua to the Falcons. Ari. How about you?
SPEAKER_01So yeah, I I think you know, it's actually very interesting because you can make the case that both teams did the exact same thing, which is I have one injury prone quarterback, let's add another injury prone quarterback to the situation and see what happens. But I actually agree with you, and I think that the Vikings, and I'll I'll I'll just give you something to think about. You know, you laid it out so so elegantly about the issue with having McCarthy and Murray, and I'll I'll kind of say it from a slightly different perspective, um, which is you know, I think Kyler Murray goes into the season as uh the starting quarterback, and I think that the Vikings view it as one of two things gonna happen to Kyler Murray. Either he's going to flourish under Kevin O'Connell, and they're gonna be probably the best team in the NFC North with a healthy Kyler Murray and and Justin Jefferson. You know, they have Justin Jefferson, they have um their second receiver who's thank you from from USC. Um, and and you know, they they have a very solid foundation to basically they were they're they're a top 12 quarterback away from being a legit super bowl threat. And great defense, they got Brian Flores as their DC. They have they literally have it all. I I don't know. Have they replaced Aaron Jones um via free agency at running back? I I'm not sure if they've done anything at running.
SPEAKER_00I I will check as you continue to make your point.
SPEAKER_01But but uh for the most part, it's also an extremely deep running back class uh in this year's draft. You can probably get uh two guys to share carries and draft them both on the fifth round. So, you know, that that's this year's draft. So I'm not like uh you know, I'm not up in arms about that, especially with Murray being the runner that he is. But and then the the the second scenario is Kyler Murray gets injured. And I I am really of the opinion that Kevin O'Connell still does believe Marthy, and he was in a very difficult situation that was made even worse because of all of the injuries that he went through. So not only did he need to play better than he necessarily was capable of at that point in his career, but obviously the injuries held him back as well, and then it just really unraveled from there. So I think that we can see a situation that Kyler Murray starts the year off and he's fine andor even good, and then after four to seven games he gets hurt, JJ McCarthy comes in, and everyone knows why the Vikings drafted JJ McCarthy and he looks fantastic. I am not willing to give up on McCarthy, as and I do not think KOC is either. Um, the Falcons, I think that Tua is the exact same move as Kevin Stefanski. You know, it's just you know, it literally it's kind of like you know, uh what is this, 2023? Um, no, but but it in uh in reality, it's just like okay, we don't have so many options here. We may as well go for you know the move that can make us solid, and and that's their ceiling. Their ceiling is just to be solid, and the funny part about building a team like that is that their floor is top three pick, you know, that's the problem here. Um, you know, and and Stefanski could be fine, he's never gonna be great. Tua could be fine, he's never gonna be great. And there's a chance that both Tua and Michael Penix can never play football again, and it'll become clear by the end of the season because of how terribly injured and injury prone they both are. So that that's that's kind of messed up, and and I would not be surprised, especially where where New Orleans, Carolina, and Tampa are at that the Falcons are drafting, you know, top three or top five next year. So, you know, it's it's it's pretty bizarre.
SPEAKER_00By the way, just two final notes to answer your question. No, the Vikings have not, they've actually not been very um very active in free agency as a general thing, they have not signed a running back to another contract, and just one other note is there a team in the NFL where the significance of their third string QB is gonna be more significant given injury history than the Falcons.
SPEAKER_01And who is the Falcons third string QP? I don't know. I would have to look at look at that. I think it's my dad because he's also a left-handed thrower.
SPEAKER_00That's what it could be, you know, it could be, and he would have the same health.
SPEAKER_01Oh, oh, absolutely, absolutely, and and yeah, so so you know, and and so just talking about uh about running backs, it it's it's a very interesting conversation overall. I'm pretty sure Ty Chandler, if you could check this as well, who was their second string running back. Um, I think he was also a free agent, and I'm not sure if they're gonna be bringing him back. So they may completely uh redo their their backfield, and it kind of makes sense because as you saw with Kyler in Arizona, um James Connor, who was fine with Pittsburgh, really excelled. It's just a specific kind of runner that goes really well with running quarterbacks. Um, and some teams have a knack for finding those guys. So I'm I'm very curious to see how they feel. Like I said, I genuinely think you can find a starter in the fifth or sixth round uh as a running back in this running back. Um, but even if you don't think that, you can definitely find two guys to split carries in the fifth and sixth round of this year's draft. So, you know, on on that note and going back to the Chiefs, because we touched on it a little bit. What do you what do you make of what the Chiefs have done overall in free agency so far? And do you think they've done enough to kind of make up for how bad of a season they had last year?
SPEAKER_00Oh, yeah. I mean, without a doubt, I love the moves that the Chiefs have made and and watch out. That's all I gotta say. Like we knew, we knew that with the taste that all of the Chiefs organization were left with in their mouth um from the from the you know from last season, there was no question that it was going to be not a rebuild, it was gonna be a quick reboot, and they are clearly ready to go. They have had a great offseason, and they're gonna draft and they're gonna have a great draft. I already predict this. When was the last time that the Chiefs had two um first round picks? Uh, when was the last time the Chiefs were picking that high? And I think they're going to like they are ready to go. There's no question. And we can already now in, and by the way, Mahomes will be back for week one. Um, and so no worries, we will not need to suffer through seeing Justin Fields um on the field, so you know, barring something crazy, and yeah, I love their moves. Um, and I think that we're really looking at a there's no reason right now not to say, hey, the Chiefs are gonna be back in the Super Bowl this year. No reason not to think that.
SPEAKER_01That's that's crazy because you know, I I look at their offseason, I see that they, you know, obviously brought in Kenneth Walker. Um, but you know, the rest of their moves on offense, you know, they brought back uh Kelsey and they brought back Thornton. And I think that it's a foregone conclusion that they're going to be drafting an offensive playmaker probably at the end of the first round at this point, or maybe with their with their first pick in the second round. Um, but is that enough? You know, like what who is who are who is Mahomes throwing the ball to? Like, oh they'll use Kenneth Walker. Are they gonna are they gonna use both Walker and Demercado in the backfield at the same time? Um, it's gonna be interesting, but uh I don't think they're gonna be drafting a tight end at the end of the first round. Um Kenya and Sadiq is gonna be long gone.
SPEAKER_00Oh, yeah, long gone. No, but by the way, this is a deep tight end class.
SPEAKER_01You'll see it's very deep. I just think that there's a huge drop off from Sadiq to the number two. Yeah, you know, I think that number two we could will probably go in the second round, and maybe not even early second round. Um, and Sadiq, uh my call, and I and I know that I I'd say there's like a 60 to 70 percent chance this happens, but my call is that Kenyon Sadiq is the first pass catcher off the off the board in this year's draft. I think he gets drafted before any wide receiver gets drafted. That is my call.
SPEAKER_00Wow, okay, that's a hot take right there. And I'm not saying you're wrong, um, but I don't know. But very possibly. And by the way, another reason why I think the Chiefs are gonna do great is because they signed God, they signed safety Elohigh Gilman.
SPEAKER_01Oh, oh, that's not as good as the Jets receiver, though. Okay, you know they have uh what's his they also Adoni Mitchell, yeah. Yeah, yeah. So next time, next time Alohi Gilman is going to have to be per uh paired with uh Adonai Mitchell, and then we can make a whole a whole thing out of that, you know.
SPEAKER_00And how cool would it be if like lightning came down and struck them both at the same time? Oh man, as they were covering one another. That would be uh that would be pretty cool. Um, but it definitely look, I I uh I don't see how we do not very much include them in the in this year's you know contenders from the AFC. I absolutely think that they're there, they've done enough, and yeah, they're gonna draft extremely well. So, by the way, on the topic of the draft, I wanted to get your thoughts. How high is Jeremiah Love being drafted?
SPEAKER_01Oh, that is a phenomenal question. Well, if we get into the draft, and I wasn't sure if we'd get into the draft, but basically, you know, I I I I take the draft very seriously, and one of the first things that I try to do in any draft after having an understanding of you know uh where teams are picking and what and the players is understand tiers. I view everything in tiers, and there's a certain amount of players, and um, you know, I I think that tier two in this year's draft is maybe maybe may have 40 players in it, um, which basically means that anyone picking after the first seven spots um could pretty much move to the beginning of the second round and maybe end up with, you know, that obviously there's there's percentages here and everything, but for the most part, I view seven players in this year's draft as being elite, and everyone else is is a cut below, and and those seven guys, you can argue that Jeremiah Love is as good as anyone in this draft. Um, Arvel Reese, David Bailey, Caleb Downs, Sonny Styles, obviously Mendoza, and you have uh Jeremiah Love and Vega Iowane. Okay, uh, this guy, uh, no one's talking about him enough. Um, tackles always go higher than than interior linemen. That's just how it goes in the draft. But Olay Vega Iowane, okay, from Penn State, that guy is a legit top five, top seven talent. And um he's gonna he he may be there uh in the teens and the mid-teens, similarly to Linderbaum. And if you look back at Linderbaum, it's like who wouldn't have drafted that guy top 10? You know, like that's crazy. So that guy is legit. And to answer your question about Jeremiah Love, um, I think that I think that someone is going to trade into the top five to pick it. That's what I think. Um, I do not think I do not think the Giants are going to draft him at number five. They're not. And and I do not I think that the Titans are gonna do something very strange, and I think that the Cardinals want to trade back. They don't really need a pass rusher. Um, obviously, they it would be ridiculous for them to pass on whomever's left from the Jets, either being Bailey or Reese, and therefore it would be it would make much more sense for them to move down. Um, for a team as bad as the Cardinals to draft Jeremiah Love third overall would be crazy. But I do think that the Cardinals or the Titans will move down, and some team will move into the third or fourth spot to draft Jeremiah Love. That's what I think, because that's how good Jeremiah Love is. But you know, it putting him in a situation like what the Cardinals and the Titans is not going to move the needle for them. What they'll be they'll go from a four-win team to a six-win team. No, you're looking for a team like um trying, I'm trying to think uh someone in the next tier, someone like the commanders, right? Who are drafting right behind. If they get someone like Jeremiah Love, all of a sudden their offense looks completely different. I'm talking about Jaden Daniels coming back healthy, you're talking about adding Jeremiah Love, and it gives you know the Christian McCaffrey effect that the Niners had, where it's basically like, oh, right, yeah, the Niners, they don't even need wide receivers anymore because they have Christian McCaffrey. That's the kind of situation that Jeremiah Love brings to a team, and he is 100% worth the top five draft pick.
SPEAKER_00I absolutely agree. And and what the interesting thing is, is that if you the the I knew that Jeremiah Love was going to go top five when one of the first moves, both the Chiefs and the Saints did, who are picking eight and nine, or nine and eight, depending on how you want to look at it, they went ahead and both signed top-tier running backs. You just knew that that's them knowing that Jeremiah Love is not on the board by the time that they're by the time that they're picking, and so that's when I knew he's going top five. And what I think of the other thing is, is that I think that there is a decent chance that the Titans do sign him if he's still on the board at four. The Giants will not sign him at five, but I agree with you. Somebody is moving into the top five, two through five in order to get him.
SPEAKER_01It's gonna be the by the way, you know who he would, you know which team could I think would make them like from a solid team or like a playoff contender into a Super Bowl contender is the Cincinnati Bengals. I think if the Bengals would trade up from number 10, getting Jeremiah Love adding him with Jamar Chase, T. Higgins, and Joe Burrow, that team offensively could be like what the Colts had when Peyton Manning was there, what uh the Rams had when they had Marshall Fox and Tory Holt, and that's the kind of offense they could have, which just it doesn't even matter if you have defense, it just doesn't even matter because you're just gonna score 40 points a game exact every game, every game because it's unstoppable. You just can't cover that many, you can't have three guys who probably all need a double team at all times.
SPEAKER_00Wow. Yeah, that that's a great. I like your thought on the commanders pulling the trigger on that, but you're right. I think the Bengals potentially pulling the Trigger on that, I could see that happening. The Cowboys are not going to do it, they're not going to give up. As much as they would, Jerry Jones would love him. Um as much as by the way, Jerry Jones would still trade for a fast crossway. I have no doubt of that. So true. Um, but I yeah, I think that you're right. If the Bengals pull the trigger, and also look for the teams that are picking in the top five, like if I'm the Giants, and yeah, either the commanders at seven or certain even the Bengals at 10 come to me and say, Hey, let's go ahead and uh let's go ahead and I'll move down to the 10th spot. I can probably still get, maybe even get at that point, um, Sonny Siles or Caleb down.
SPEAKER_01That's the question. That's the big question. Because, like I said, if you move out of the if you're drafting inside the top seven and you're moving out of the top seven, I do think there's a significant drop-off in talent after the top seven guys. And it means that your team has to have at least one other guy, whether it be again, like there are some very interesting people. There's Carnel Tate, there's Makai Lemon, there's Jamaud McCoy. Like, I'm not saying that there are no guys, but I do think that when it comes to certainty, you know, you're looking at two things with top draft picks. You're looking at ceiling and you're looking at certainty. And someone like Jamad McCoy, who missed an entire year, even though when he was healthy, he did look like a stud. You know, that's great at ninth overall, tenth overall, but like that's not of guarantee. You know, it's Carnell Tate. Literally, if he would have ran a 4-4-3, he would be in that group as well. But he ran 4-5-something. And as we know, you know, when it comes to first round receivers, you want you want a guy that runs better. And and and and speaking about the Rams earlier, you know, the one thing that they've been able to do so damn well is is pick receivers in the mid-rounds that other teams, you know, kind of made less of and uh ended up being, you know, Cooper Cup and Puka Nakua. You know, so so so yeah. So I I don't think, and that's by the way, the reason why I think Sadiq is gonna be going uh ahead of Carnell Tate and Mikhail Lemon. I think they both tanked their draft uh uh prospect stat status at the combine, paid because of his uh 40 yard, and Mikhail Lemon apparently inter well, like most teams thought he was a moron from his interviews, like it wasn't something that was like, oh, he's dangerous or whatever. They just thought he was kind of dim. So, you know, I I don't think, and and this guy, like you watch his tape and I I see Tyree killed, you know. So that there is a point in which you just say, you know, we draft a guy, but also like if he can't read a playbook, you know, how much are you putting on this guy? So you know, these are all questions again, like top seven, they're not, but they have a ton of talent, but so does a guy that you can find 40th overall, yeah. And in this year's draft, you can find one of these guys, and you talked about the tight end, tight end class. There's some guy named Marlon Klein, who I think is going to go in the third round. I mean, he he he could be Trey McBride, and again, Trey McBride went in like the end of the second, early third. Travis Kelsey went in the third round. You know, like there are guys to be had later on if you know what you're doing and you know what you're looking for.
SPEAKER_00Of course, if you know how to develop them, you can go ahead and do that. Now, look, here's something else to bear in mind, though. And again, this comes back to, and I don't want to get too caught up on the draft, let's get back to free agency because it's definitely closer to the draft. We'll have a much more dedicated to the draft pod. But one final note that I do want to make is this we know how deep next year's draft is. If in this moving up, if if the Bengals, let's say, move up to five with the Giants, and beyond trading the fifth for the tenth, you give me a one or even a two next year with that, it's worth it.
SPEAKER_01It's worth it. So I'll I'll tell you, one next year is not gonna happen to move up into that. It just it just doesn't happen to move up that few uh picks. I'm not saying that it can't, but it's it's very rare. But I do think there's a good chance that it would be this year and next year's too to move up, uh to move from from 10 to 5, you know, and that would be uh great. I would take that.
SPEAKER_00I would take this year's again, given the depth at the given the depth at um, you know, um, you know, next year's draft rounds.
SPEAKER_01So so I'll ask you if you're drafting at number 10 for the Giants and uh Downs and uh Styles are both long gone, who who do you who do you who do you look for? Who do you look at? Would you just go receiver, you know, like Tate or Lemon or even uh I'm doing either receiver or top O lineman at that point? Well, sure. That makes that makes a lot of sense. That makes a lot of sense. So if you're comfortable doing that, then you definitely make that trade. Like that's basically what it comes down to.
SPEAKER_00Um look, and Harbaugh is definitely someone who's capable of of doing that. Um, so we'll see. All right, coming back to free agency. Do you have a single favorite move of free agency? Like if you had one, what would it be?
SPEAKER_01I definitely have a favorite move, and it's very personal, and I'll I'll share it. I just wanted to uh note, and if you saw the story that came out about Dante Moore this morning about his struggles with his struggles with the mental health, and that the situation Oregon is too big for him with the amount that he gets paid and the amount of attention that he's gotten. And I'm as a Jets fan, I am just thrilled that this came out. And he's not he wasn't because he would have been the the shoe-in to get drafted by the Jets, number two overall. And I thought I think he's a hell of a quarterback. Um, so I'm just uh hoping for for for more. Um, and I hope that by next year it gets us figured out because he is a phenomenal NFL prospect. He's gonna do great. On to my favorite move, okay, and it's there's it's not even close, okay. It's Malik Willis to the Dolphins because you've been saying it for like three months now that Malik Willis is going to the Dolphins. And when I saw that, I just couldn't stop. I was beaming, I was like, I can't freaking believe it. I saw Tom Pelicero break it, watching it live on NFL Network, and I'm just like, what are you kidding me? You've been saying this for months. I heard you say this like six times, and it's actually happening, and I was just shocked. And so nothing can beat that that move for me. Malik Willis and you calling that is my favorite move of the entire free agency.
SPEAKER_00Ari, much love, my man. Much love. That like I appreciate that, and I don't know what it was. I just I saw his success when he stepped in for Jordan Love, and I'm like, oh my god, this guy's going to the Dolphins. Because I knew Tua wasn't gonna be their QB, and that was even prior to any coaching changes or anything. I don't know. I I I had never felt so sure about a random move than I did. And yeah, I I I definitely checked a lot on that because then the response and reaction I got from you was great. And so hearing that that was um, you know, your favorite move means a lot for real.
SPEAKER_01Hands down, hands down. It was it was just awesome to see. Um, but so so what what was your what was your favorite move, obviously, you know, beside for the Malik Willis one. Uh what was your favorite move this week?
SPEAKER_00I have two favorite moves, I would say. One obviously being a little bit more personal, which would be the Giants picking up Isaiah Likely. I think that was a phenomenal, phenomenal, phenomenal pick. Um, and I think it's even funnier. There were a ton of memes about how Don Harbour signs Mark Andrews last year to an extension, which is all to know that he's now gonna free up likely for himself, which was um, which I thought was pretty funny. I love the move. He's going to be he's going to thrive in the Nangy offense. He's gonna be Jackson Dart's best friend, and it's gonna be a huge move. We know as it is, they're probably gonna spend more time in 12 personnel anyway, and then throw in Picard in that, and we're gonna have a whole bunch of exciting whites now on the Giants, and I just love the move. Um, my other favorite move is Tyler Linderbaum to the Raiders, and this isn't a question of match or talent or anything like that, it's hats off to the dude. I don't remember a player so significantly taking the top salary and just raising it that freaking much in one offseason. I don't think there's ever been anybody else at any position, even QBs, that have taken an average salary at the top of their position and raised it so significantly much. Like the top center, um, average salary per year prior to that was 18 million. And to go ahead and then raise it all the way up to what was it 20? 27 million annually, 27 million annually to be able to do that at a lot of time overlooked position. Think of the fact centers when it comes to the price to the to the franchise tag, they don't even get their own category, they're lumped in with guards, which is ridiculous. Go ahead, lumped in with tackles, the whole yes, right?
SPEAKER_01It's the whole freaking all-line, which is and by the way, it's the same thing for linebackers with middle linebackers and edge, which makes no sense whatsoever. Oh, yeah, I agree.
SPEAKER_00They they definitely need to rethink that. But to go ahead and be able, especially after the Ravens turn down your fifth year option, which generally, when that move is made, it's usually like, Whoa, hold on a minute. If he's supposedly so good, which he is, why are they not? You know, it's a no-brainer on a player that you're even questionable about. But see upside four, yeah. Why not sign them to their fifth year option? To be able to go bank on yourself and then be able to get your representation and your agents to go out and raise the absolute ceiling, like you literally you look at the 50 percent, 50 more. Insane, just absolutely insane. So, again, this isn't again, it's my favorite, not because oh wow, what a great match, him and the Raiders and everything like that. And look, there's no question, you go ahead and you know that you're drafting you know Mendoza and to go get him a center like Linderbaum to kick off things, yeah. A me great move that without a doubt, and you know, knowing that you got Clint Kubiak, who's a genius, and he's gonna do great with Mendoza and now you know, securing a center, love the move from that perspective as well. But really, hats off to Tyler Lindenbaum. It was important for me to highlight this move because well deserved, well done, and really it's just one of those things that that you really don't see every day or every year, and and for that matter, we haven't seen it. So, really, hats off.
SPEAKER_01No, it's it's it's wild. And I I wanted I wanted to look into this because I I remembered um two interesting things. I mean, Kirk Cousins when he signed with the Vikings, so he didn't set the market for average annual value is exactly you know, by the way, when Kirk Cousins signed his contract with the Falcons, the two highest paid quarterbacks in the NFL at that point in time in 2018 were Kirk Cousins and Jimmy Garoppolo. Like that's just wild to me, okay? That that makes no sense whatsoever. But sure, 2018, what a what a different world. Um, but he changed the way that quarterback contracts were conceived, which is they were completely guaranteed. That's something that Kirk Cousins did that totally changed. Um, but then Mahomes in 2020, uh, he beat the next highest uh QB salary by 17 million dollars, um, going from 28, which was sent by Kirk Cousins two years before, to 45. And again, the structure was different because it wasn't with all the guaranteed money, and now the Chiefs have the flexibility to keep on um restructuring that contract to create more cap space, but that was also a super significant milestone in quarterback, but also it it it pays to note that um you know the salary cap didn't really rise for a couple years because of COVID, and that was the first main rise. Okay, there are a lot of different uh you know caveats involved there, but but no, to your point, um well deserved. And again, like should we just mention how like the Chiefs front office is just killing it? Where they have the one B. You can't even say that that that uh Linderbaum is significantly better than Creed Humphrey, they're in the same group, they're one A and one B, however you want to, and they now have the top center at a 50%, you know, like a third discount of the rate now. If Creed Humphrey would have waited a little longer, he would have gotten you know something very similar. So that that's just uh well well done again by the Chiefs.
SPEAKER_00Absolutely, but I know you like funny anomalies, so here's one for you. Please when aside from this year, have had you had your first and second string QBs share the same last name.
SPEAKER_01Oh, you're talking about Josh Allen and Kyle Allen signed with uh I was thinking that when they were signed, it's super strange. No, I'm definitely not gonna get it on uh live right now in like a matter of seconds, but I would very much like to think about it at least for like 20 minutes. So if you could afford me the time and I'll get back to you after the podcast, and then we'll and then we'll you know we'll talk about it. But yes, talk about it on the next episode. I love these anomalies. I love that. I love that. I can't I can't wait to think about it. Um, and I definitely know it's not Hertz or Manning, you know. So that's uh that's uh um very, very true. Oh, wait a second. Was was um, I don't know if this was the last time, but I'm pretty sure that uh one of the Palmer brothers backed up Carson Palmer once in his career. Did he? I would which one? Which one? I think it would have been Jordan Palmer, it would have been Jordan. So I I'm pretty sure there was one year that one of the Palmer brothers was a third string quarterback on the Bengals when Carson Palmer was there. Um, but yeah, that's uh yeah. But but basically, you know, it's just great to go over all of this because it just shows how much more we have to discuss. I'd love to get into you know more about the draft, more about the Raiders. We have a lot of questions. We didn't even touch on the 49ers, and and they're getting Evans and Christian Kirk, and there's just so much to cover. So we'll we'll have to do another podcast soon so we can cover this. Yes.
SPEAKER_00All right, nicely done, my friend. Yes, you are absolutely right. Jordan Palmer did serve as a backup QB to his brother Carson for the Bengals. They actually wasn't just one season, it was from 2008 through 2010, and they were the first brothers in NFL history to actually play QB for the same team in the same game on November 21st, 2010, where they both actually appeared in the same game.
SPEAKER_01Well, there you go. So I don't know if that was the last time it happened, but at least I got one from the last 16 years. Um, and if there is a more recent one, is there a more recent one?
SPEAKER_00So that I didn't check, I wanted to check because you had brought up the Palmer brothers, and so um, which by the way is even cooler than Josh and Kyle Allen. Sure. The same last name. These were actually brothers uh going ahead and backing each other up. And then I didn't even know the little tidbit about the fact that they played in the same game. So that's that's actually really, really cool. But I love these little little anomalies. Um this has been fun. I think we will bring it to a close. I'm happy to say that we got through this um episode without a siren interrupting it. Um, so we didn't have to go to our contingency plan. Um, it's been great to be back recording with you, Ari. And uh, you know, as much as the Iranians tried, we were able to get through this one. And there is so much to discuss still ahead. Um, whether it's the you know third and you know, fourth, whatever later tiers all free agency, which is kind of interesting to see which of those signings end up becoming really significant once the you know season actually rolls around. We've got the draft and everything with that coming up to discuss as well. And then not to mention, you know, before we know it, um, you know, I it was so crazy. I saw that, you know, given any teams with a new head coach, Giants included, you know, they can open up OTAs and stuff in April. It's wild. It's wild that we are back there. And and and you know, I I love football. I know you love football. It's a passion that we absolutely go ahead and share. And so it's really cool to see just you know, the league never stops, and there's always something going on, and um, it's also gonna be fun to see which NFL players do something stupid like we've discussed in the past, and let's just see what's gonna happen um over the course of the next few months. So, Ari, any closing words before I bring this to an official close?
SPEAKER_01No, I'm I'm good, I'm good. We'll we'll we'll discuss a lot more soon.
SPEAKER_00All right, excellent. All right, so to all of our listeners out there, thank you for listening. Continue to go ahead and give us those five star reviews. Your feedback is always welcome. And Ari, stay safe. We out.